Rosbalt, 01/02/2004, 13:02

Seven Reasons Not to Forget about Russia

US President George Bush did not even mention Russia in his recent state of the union address to the nation. It seems strange as a substantial portion of the speech was devoted to international affairs and the fight against terrorism. The US leader spoke of many countries including some which are hardly of much importance to the US. For example, Ukraine, Bulgaria, Romania and Salvador all got a mention...

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, there have only been two prior occasions when Russia was not mentioned in the US president's national address and both speeches were given by newly elected presidents who spoke entirely of national concerns: the first was given by Bill Clinton in January 1993 and the second was given by the current president in January 2001. Yet Russia was spoken of in some context in all the other annual addresses.

The high point for Russia came in January 2000, shortly after the resignation of Boris Yeltsin in favor of Vladimir Putin, when Bill Clinton mentioned Russia a record eight times. There were seven references to Russia in 1994 (remember the siege of parliament in October 1993 and Zhirinovsky's victory in the subsequent parliamentary elections). Russia was mentioned twice by Clinton in 1995, 1996, 1997 and 1999 but just once by George Bush Sr. in 1992, by Clinton in 1998 and by the current president in 2002 and 2003.

Some experts believe the current ostracism of Russia (the US president did not even mention Russia in the list of countries which have suffered from terrorism although he was careful to mention Indonesia, Iraq, Kenya, Morocco, Saudi Arabia and Turkey) reflects Moscow's weakening role in world affairs, which was aggravated by Russia's attempt to prevent the US campaign in Iraq. Observers in Washington also believe there is growing disappointment in the US at the way the political situation in Russia is developing.

Although the Bush administration has taken a far more pragmatic approach to its relations with Moscow than the Clinton administration, it is clear that Washington is persistently keen to see Russia become a country of progressive democracy. If things go the other way in Russia then there will be no chance of a closer alliance as doubts will arise over whether or not the two countries share common values.

Nonetheless, Russia has not been written off yet and this was demonstrated by a report given by the Public Committee for US National Interests and Relations with Russia, which was drawn up by the Nixon Centre in Washington and the Belfer Centre at Harvard University. Authors of the report claim 'Russia is still one of the few countries whose activity can have a serious impact on vital US interests.' They then list seven reasons why the US administration ought to continue paying special heed to relations with Russia:


Firstly, Russia is a very large country, which comprises several strategically important regions. In terms of its size and geographical location it is a key player in Europe, the Middle East and in Central, South and East Asia. As a result Moscow could have a serious positive or negative impact on short-term US foreign policy (the situation in North Korea and Iran for example) as well as more long-term foreign policy (Iraq and Afghanistan). Also, Russia has the longest land border with China, a fast-growing country which is capable of infringing on both US and Russian interests. Most importantly, although Moscow lost much of its former power after the end of the Cold War, it still carries a lot of geopolitical weight, more so than London or Paris.

Secondly, as the USSR's successor, Russia maintains ties with countries which remain inaccessible to the US government, whether it be in the Middle East, central Asia or in other regions. Russia is well informed about what is happening in these countries. Russian intelligence and influence in these regions could provide the US with substantial assistance in confronting the current, developing and future challenges that could arise, especially in the war against terrorism.

Thirdly, Russia still possesses nuclear weapons which are capable of doing colossal damage to the US. Fortunately, such a scenario has become considerably less likely since the end of the Cold War. Nonetheless, the US will always be interested in making sure that these weapons are not used against the US or its allies.

Fourthly, Russia is responsible for controlling the largest arsenal in the world of nuclear war-heads and radioactive materials used for creating nuclear weapons. It is essential that Russia meets this responsibility to prevent the possibility of 'unaccounted for radioactive materials.' The US is interested in ensuring that Russia implements effective programs to prevent the theft of these weapons and the sale of nuclear weapons to terrorists who could use them to kill American citizens.

Fifthly, Russian reserves, technology and expertise in creating biological and chemical weapons mean that it is extremely important for the US to collaborate with Moscow as the US in seeking to prevent the spread of these kinds of weapons. Also, collaboration with Russia could prevent countries hostile to the US from obtaining complex arms such as rockets and submarines.

Sixthly, Russia is the leading exporter of hydrocarbons (oil and gas) in the world. Russia could allow the US to diversify and store up reserves of energy that are not supplied by Middle Eastern or OPEC countries.

Finally, the seventh reason: as a permanent member of the UN Security Council Russia has the right to veto and could therefore have a substantial positive or negative impact on US' efforts to operate through the UN and other international organizations to promote other important interests. At a time when many are concerned about the US' use of power, cooperation with Russia could enable the US to establish global leadership. In a wider context, close ties between Russia and the US could deter other countries from viewing Moscow as a potential source of political support.

 

 

 

The report, which is only provisional, was prepared in autumn 2003 before the arrest of Mikhail Khodorkovsky and the Russian parliamentary elections. The full version of the report is expected in spring 2004 and will serve as a recommendation to the next US administration on how to develop relations with Russia. It will be interesting to see whether the American view has changed at all in view of recent events in Russia.

This report can also be read in the newspaper Russia and Global Politics.

Translated by Nick Chesters

http://www.rosbaltnews.com/2004/02/17/65521.html