NATO flirts in Caucasus

By Gayane Movsesian

Online Armenian Newspaper yerkir

An ARF Publication

23 January 2004

Appropriate departments of NATO and USA have "initiated" an investigation to find those responsible for preventing the Armenian party to participate in the seminar in Baku.

Delivering its regrets, the State Department of USA found itself in a miserable situation saying that "lack of materials is still not sufficient for exposing the real guilty."

Perhaps, their colleague, US Defense Minister Donald Rumsfeld who is constantly using the European chairs for talking about peace could help clarify the issue through his intelligence agencies. Perhaps, then, everyone would understand it was Turkey, the cordial partner of Washington and Azerbaijan , that made it impossible for the Armenian delegation to make for Baku.

Many Armenian reporters called the scandal that exploded last week concerning the denial of Azerbaijan to accept the Armenian military delegation in Baku "another Turkish-Azerbaijani provocation."

The delegation was supposed to participate in the NATO seminar devoted to planning and preparation of "Cooperative Best Effort-2004" maneuvers that will take place in frames of "Partnership for peace" project of NATO . The Azeri and Turkish mass media accused Armenia of the provocation. In other words, both of the countries (Turkey and Azerbaijan) acted according a prearranged plan. And they believed it was not supposed to be strange.

However, everything about it is quite clear and ominous. The omen issues from NATO which cooked the soup and now refuses to have it. Moreover, it keeps silence as if nothing really happened. Though there is time before September when the maneuvers in Azerbaijan begin for NATO to express itself. Of course, it depends on whether it really wants to see Armenia as a participants of the maneuvers as it claims.

If Brussels really wished it, they could take the Armenian delegation together with the NATO representatives and easily arrive in Baku instead of going through Yerevan-Tbilisi-Istanbul. In that case no one would even doubt the Armenian participation in the autumn maneuvers.

First of all, NATO certainly knew that the Armenian aspiration for participation in the seminar in Baku and further maneuvers would meet opposition in Baku.

Last year, during similar maneuvers in Armenia, Azerbaijan refused to participate in them once again for making a fuss about their complaint to Armenia over the Karabagh issue.

Secondly, NATO, especially the military attaché at the US Embassy in Armenia could not but know that since the Bishkek Agreement of 1992 there has been no visa regime between CIS countries when he was "advising" the Armenian delegation to apply for visas at the Azerbaijani Embassy in Georgia (the only exception regarding visas is when one of the countries adopt an appropriate law like in the case with Russia and Georgia).

It means that there was need for giving Armenia access to the seminar. It is more ambiguous why the attaché sent the Armenian delegation to Tbilisi for receiving entry authorization, while the NATO-distributed documents explicitly say that the Armenian military will receive entry visas in the Bina airport of Baku.

If we take into consideration how indifferent NATO treat the refusal of Azerbaijan to participate in "Best Effort-2003," it would be irrational to expect from it anything more in respect to the participation of Armenia in the maneuvers in Azerbaijan this year.

Does it not it make any joint maneuvers in the region senseless, when the organizer is unable to secure participation of all the parties? It appears that there are no real efforts for carrying out the set objectives and NATO is just working for a "show."

The situation can also be described as a process of definition of interests zone. The scheme is designed, as well as the project and as to how it is executed, whether it is fulfilled partially or fully is not that important. Let us act when the it is time for that. It means the time for action, moreover active action is still far away. And when is it time. Perhaps, when Russia withdraws its troops from Georgia. Perhaps, when it becomes possible to declare partnership with Georgia and Azerbaijan.

Or perhaps after activating the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipe will need defending from "the hell knows what." Anything is possible.
Note that the American experts of Stratford Research Center believe that the coming years are not going to be favorable for the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipe which is supposed to be accomplished and exploited in 2005.

"This conclusion of the experts is based upon their own prognosis for the unpredictable development of the situation in the Caucasus, namely in Georgia," reports the Freedom radio station. The thing is that Georgia is predicted to be the hottest spot in the CIS region in 2004. The pressure that is expected to be practiced with South Osia, Ajaria, and Abkhazia by Tbilisi may provoke multi-front civil war in which Russia and USA will be supporting different parties.

The research says nothing about Armenia. Time will show whether it is good or bad. And now we will be watching the ill-designed scenario of NATO named "Cooperative Best Effort-2003." Time will show whether the failure of the Armenian party to arrive in Baku was the climax of the seminar. Let us live up to September. As the proverb says, chickens are counted in autumn.

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