MOSCOW VIEWS MILITARY WITHDRAWAL
ISSUE AS LITMUS TEST FOR GEORGIAN-RUSSIAN RELATIONS
Igor Torbakov:
1/28/04
Both Georgian and Russian leaders
have expressed a desire to repair
their frayed bilateral relationship. The issue of Russia's
military withdrawal from Georgia is fast emerging as the key measure of whether the two
countries can overcome mutual suspicion and settle their
political differences.
New Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, backed by both
the United States and European
Union, is exerting pressure on Russia to close down
its two remaining
military bases in Georgia. In Moscow, a growing
number of political leaders are viewing
the base issue as a litmus test for the future
of bilateral relations. Tbilisi must abandon
its "unhealthy fixation" on the Russian bases, political observers in Moscow say, before the Kremlin will feel inclined to
take steps that ease existing
tension.
The base issue is just one
of many sources of friction between Tbilisi and Moscow.
[For additional information see the Eurasia Insight
archive]. Georgia has pressed
for a three-year timetable for the Russian
withdrawal from bases near the
Ajarian capital Batumi, and in Akhalkalaki, an area with a high concentration
of ethnic Armenians. Russian military leaders have insisted
that 11 years are needed to
complete the withdrawal.
Much like their Russian counterparts,
Georgian leaders view the withdrawal
as a test of sincerity. Saakashvili
and other Georgian officials have said that
a normalization of relations
can occur only if Russia sheds
its imperial ambitions and treats
Tbilisi as an equal
partner. If Moscow continues to adhere
to the 11-year withdrawal timetable, Saakashvili's administration is likely to take it as a sign that Russia
is disinclined to compromise on other difficult issues, including Abkhazia's future political status. [For background see the Eurasia
Insight archive].
Saakashvili has asserted
that Russia's desire to maintain
a military presence in Georgia is connected
more to "emotional" factors that to strategic
considerations. While clearly eager to
rid Georgia of Russian troops, Saakashvili says he is trying
to take a restrained approach. "Russia should have
already withdrawn from these bases
in Georgia, but we are treading carefully as to the resolution
of these issues," the Russian Itar-Tass news agency
quoted Saakashvili as saying.
Saakashvili's January 25
inauguration offered the Georgian president
an opportunity to raise the base
issue's international
profile. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight
archive]. The guest of honor at the ceremonies was US Secretary of State Colin Powell,
who was repeatedly
asked about the US stance towards
the Russian withdrawal.
During subsequent meetings in Moscow on January 26, Powell gently pressured Russian leaders to accelerate their
base withdrawal timetable. He reminded
Russian President Vladimir Putin and other top officials
of Russia's commitments outlined in the 1999 Istanbul agreement. That pact required
Russia to close the Vaziani
and Gudauta bases by July
2001, and to negotiate a timetable for the closure
of the Batumi and Akhalkalaki facilities. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight
archive].
During a mid-January visit to
Tbilisi, a top EU foreign policy official, Javier Solana, also called on Russia to honor the
Istanbul treaty.
According to some Georgia media reports, Moscow has sought a $500 million payment to supposedly
finance the Russian military withdrawal. Russian officials have denied such reports.
Given the growing US strategic presence in the Caucasus, coupled
with Saakashvili's oft-stated desire
to hasten Georgia's integration into Western economic
and political structures, security concerns appear to dominate the
thinking of Russian political leaders when contemplating the military withdrawal.
Many in Moscow worry that as soon
as Russian forces depart Georgia, they will be replaced by US troops. Powell,
both in Tbilisi and in Moscow, reiterated that Washington has no
plans to establish US bases in Georgia.
"The Kremlin needs the concrete guarantees
that the new Georgian authorities
are indeed ready to be friends
with Russia," said a commentary published in the Kommersant daily. The first such
guarantee could be Tbilisi's agreement to a lengthy timetable
for shutting down the Batumi
and Akhalkalaki bases, the commentary
added.
There seems to be a broad consensus
in Moscow that the speedy withdrawal
from the Russian bases would
run counter to both Georgia's
and Russia's security interests. "There is no urgent necessity to pull
out from the Russian bases,"
argued Col.-Gen. Leonid Ivashov, the hawkish vice-president of the Academy of Geopolitical Studies, in a commentary published by the
Rossiya newspaper. "Their presence to a significant extent consolidates Georgian society which is split into pro-Russian and anti-Russian faction."
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov has cautioned that an accelerated withdrawal timetable could have destabilizing
domestic ramifications for Russia. Ivanov
vowed "the withdrawal of our bases from Georgia will not be done in the way it was in Germany,
when our soldiers, officers, and weapons were
dumped into an empty field, and
it was called a withdrawal."
Many moderates and pragmatists in Russian political circles are also
critical of what they perceive as Georgia's obsession with the Russian
bases. They point out that
the bases are a major source
of employment for the Georgian communities
surrounding the facilities. "Russia views the bases
as the instrument of stability in Georgia," influential
political analyst Sergei Karaganov wrote in the Rodnaya
Gazeta weekly. "We don't want
Georgia to continue unraveling and will not allow this."
"If Tbilisi persists in making the withdrawal of the bases the
central issue of the Russian-Georgian
relations," Karaganov continued, "it will be a sign that the
new Georgian leadership continues to conduct the
same old policy of enmity vis-à-vis Russia."
A few political and military analysts
in Moscow believe that Russia's strategy
is to stall in the hopes that
political circumstances more favorable to Russia will
arise in Georgia in the future. "It's hoped that in 10 years, a pro-Moscow
government may be installed in Tbilisi that will sign
a treaty to keep the bases
permanently; or that Georgia will disintegrate and semi-independent pro-Moscow fiefdoms will be created around Akhalkalaki and in Ajaria," wrote Pavel Felgenhauer
in a commentary published by the Moscow
Times.
Editor's Note:
Igor Torbakov is a freelance journalist and researcher who specializes in CIS political affairs. He holds an MA in History from Moscow
State University and a PhD from
the Ukrainian Academy of Sciences. He was Research
Scholar at the Institute of Russian History, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow; a Visiting Scholar at the Kennan Institute, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars,
Washington DC; a Fulbright Scholar
at Columbia University, New York; and
a Visiting Fellow at
Harvard University. He is now based in Istanbul,
Turkey.