Rosbalt, 14/03/2004, 12:03

Georgia: Coming Apart at the Seams

Georgia's internal situation remains extremely tense. So considerable are the differences between Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili and Aslan Abashidze, the leader of an autonomous region within Georgia, that their relations cannot be described as an 'amicable quarrel' or even as a 'thin peace.' Unable to restrain himself until March 28 -- the date of Georgia's parliamentary elections and the expected crushing defeat of the supporters of the Adjarian Lion (expected, that is, by the Tbilisi-backed anti-Abashidze movements) --Saakashvili has given Abashidze an ultimatum that expires March 15.

The ultimatum calls for the dissolution of Adjaria's Ministry of State Security, which the Georgian president accuses of espionage 'in behalf of foreign powers' (references to 'foreign powers' -- clearly directed chiefly at Russia -- have become a staple of nearly every recent Saakashvili speech. If the demand goes unmet, the autonomy's leadership, in Saakashvili's words, faces 'harsh repressive measures.' Indeed, Georgia's prime minister, Zurab Zhvaniya, has said that more than Adjaria's Security Ministry needs dismantling.

Georgia's demands were triggered by the severe beating in Adjaria of Vakhtang Komakhidze, a reporter for Tbilisi's Rustavi-2 television (the channel that played so major and so unseemly a role in November's 'revolution of roses'). Komakhidze alleges that personnel of Adjaria's Security Ministry and Ministry of Foreign Affairs were directly involved in the attack on him. Saakashvili is demanding that Adjaria find and punish the perpetrators. Even earlier, the Georgian president and his fellow members of National Movement Democrats were regularly assailing Adjaria's Security Ministry for allegedly staging pogroms and reprisals against members of movements opposed to Aslan Abashidze, although no convincing proofs of such involvement have been put forward. Rather, after the attacks of February 20-22 on the offices of opposition organizations that happened to be witnessed by Walter Schwimmer, the general secretary of the Council of Europe, the Batumi authorities had police posts set up around the offices.

Abashidze's reaction has been predictable. He has refused to dismantle the Security Ministry. 'Wanting to do something is not the same as being able to do it,' he replied to the president of Georgia, whose intentions he described as 'dangerous games.' Jamal Gogitidze, Adjaria's minister of internal affairs, asserted that Georgia's demand threatened 'creation of a new conflict between the center and the region' and would not be met. Badry Meladze, Adjaria's first deputy prime minister, told Rosbalt: 'No government can exist without security organs, and that's why we will not disband them'

Saakashvili has not backed off, despite Batumi's sharp negative reaction. While on an official visit to Paris, he again reminded Abashidze that the deadline given 'for the arrest and punishment of the organizers of the political repressions and persecution of dissidents' (that is, the aforementioned Komakhidze) would soon expire. If 'these steps are not taken, criminal charges will be brought against all high-ranking figures of the region. I will definitely issue orders to take them into custody by whatever means are necessary. I will not tolerate creation of an enclave within the territory of Georgia,' Saakashvili declared. A few days earlier, Saakashvili in Tbilisi commented on Abashidze's press conference in Moscow and vowed: 'With full authority, I declare that I want and will establish control over Adjaria.'

When, said Saakashvili, the leader of the autonomy opposes this control in every way, refusal to use the 'democratic' movements to force him out of power would be an inexcusable waste of resources. 'Together with the patriots of Adjaria, we are preparing for the parliamentary elections, and we are conducting a very intense election campaign,' he said, adding: 'I strongly advise against anyone interfering in this.'The expiration of the ultimatum is to be met with a mass meeting in Batumi to demand the resignation of Aslan Abashidze. Kobi Khabazi, a leader of the anti-Abashidze Our Adjaria, said attempts by the Adjarian authorities to block these 'peaceful assemblies' would be met with resistance, and 'events in Batumi would then follow the path of Tbilisi in November 2003.' Jamal Gogitidze immediately countered that Adjaria's Security Ministry would not permit the opposition to hold meetings as long as the emergency that has been declared in the autonomy remains in effect.

That foreign power, with whom the Adjarian Security Ministry has been alleged to have 'wrongly' cooperated -- that is, Russia -- is continuing to maintain silence about the events taking place in its neighbors' territory. The threat of a new turn in Georgia's civil war -- this time between Batumi and Tbilisi -- is becoming increasingly likely. But it looks as if the Adjarian leader will have no forces except his own to count on. As a high-ranking source in Russian special services told Rosbalt: 'Aslan Abashidze has outfoxed himself. The current situation of Adjaria is entirely the result of his desire to have good relations with everybody -- with Russia and Tbilisi. But that's not how it works. You've got to choose one side or another. Moscow's relationship to the autonomy would have been different if Abashidze had unambiguously made clear his preferences by declaring independence from Georgia.'

Up to now, Abashidze has categorically rejected the possibility of such a move. It is, nonetheless, clear that any attempt by Saakashvili's 'democratic fighters' to impose 'constitutional order' on Adjaria will result in bloodshed, despite widening rifts in the autonomy's leadership between hard-liners and those who favor an arrangement with Tbilisi. In the event of a clash, the question of republic self-determination will be on the table. How will it be answered? 'Take the example of Igor Smirnov [head of the unrecognized pro-Russian Pridnestr Moldavan Republic, whose interests someone in the Kremlin, as Rosbalt reported, is willing to sacrifice for 'our own son of a bitch,' Vladimir Voronin, Europe and the US --Ya. A.], who did just that. Did it help him much?' one of Abashidze's closest colleagues said heatedly when told of the wish of the 'foreign power.'

Batumi knows quite a lot about Moscow's ability 'to observe neutrality' and remain faithful to the principle of the territorial integrity of other states in the cases of Abkhazia and Southern Ossetia, which have declared their independence. In those cases, most got what they wanted from Russia, Russian passports -- and the hope, however faint, of Russia's coming to the defense of the interests of its citizens in case of conflict with Tbilisi.

However, Abkhazia, Adjaria and Southern Ossetia hardly exhaust the list of regions with which Mikhail Saakashvili has serious problems. Georgia is being torn by ethnic conflicts, which now constitute a real threat to pull it apart.

Georgia's Central Election Commission had barely announced Saakashvili's victory in the presidential election when the Council of Armenian Social Organizations of Samtskhe-Dzhavakha (the Armenian region of Georgia, which includes Russia's Military Base 62 at Akhalkalaki) sent him a message of congratulations that included a message declaring the situation in Dzhavakha 'catastrophic' and calling for 'clarification of its borders and transforming it into a constitutionally protected autonomy.' There was no reply, but Saakashvili declared in Paris that the question of autonomy for the region 'is not on the immediate agenda.' The Armenian movement in Dzhavakha is getting stronger, and behind it, as Tbilisi believes, are those same 'foreign powers.'

Meanwhile, the Azerbaijanis, who live mainly in Kvema Kartly, are beginning to grow restive. Their leaders are unhappy with the fact that, despite very different promises, only a single Azerbaijani is on the ballot for the parliamentary elections. 'They [the ruling coalition] recognize nobody but themselves,' Ali Babayev, chairman of Georgia -- Our Homeland, was quoted as saying by the Baku newspaper Ekho. 'No one wants to talk to us. No one needs Azerbaijanis who speak Georgian, have experience as legislators and in business and who love their country,' he said. It is not hard to guess what will be the upshot of this dissatisfaction, which is being totally ignored by the authorities in Tbilisi.

Should Mikhail Saakashvili be rocking the boat of the Georgian state? All his actions to date indicate that he is being guided by considerations quite different from those of the state.

Yana Amelina, Rosbalt, Moscow

P.S. As the Novosti news agency reported March 12, the Russian Foreign Ministry is disturbed by the growing tension between the central government of Georgia and the leadership of Adjaria. 'Based on such information as we now have, tension between Georgia's central government and the leadership of the Adjarian Autonomous Republic has been increasing and is approaching the danger point,' Novosti quoted a release from the Information and Press Department of the Russian Foreign Ministry. 'There are those in Tbilisi who are now demanding that 'Adjaria be put in its place,' related preparations of armed units are underway, and in Batumi meetings, financed by outside sources, are being organized with the aim of toppling the legal authorities in Batumi. All of this is geared to the parliamentary elections on March 28. Such circumstances cannot but elicit concern,' the statement continued.

The ministry took a principled position in favor of the peaceful settlement of all questions pertaining to Adjaria through political dialogue and within the framework of the Georgian constitution. 'Promulgating ultimatums of any kind, threats of force can only bring on a situation of chaos and internecine bloodshed,' the ministry statement averred.

http://www.rosbaltnews.com/2004/03/17/65992.html