Rosbalt, 25/02/2004, 11:02

Moscow Turns Tail in the Caucasus

Yana Amelina, Rosbalt

Translated by Howard Goldfinger

Russian policy toward Georgia is becoming increasingly clear. That it may not be serving Russian interests is all too evident. There were, for example, the inexplicable cries of joy from Kremlin officialdom over the results of the visit to the Russian capital of newly elected Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili (whom Sergey Prikhodko, the deputy chief of staff of the Putin administration, described as 'a responsible politician' with whom it is possible to talk 'sincerely and in real depth') and Moscow's increasingly well-defined policy of 'turning away from' its allies in the traditionally pro-Russian autonomies of Georgia-which, in the case of Abkhazia and Southern Ossetia, have declared their determination to leave Georgia. Ajaria, on the other hand, has declared the complete absence of separatist tendencies.

At his Moscow press conference, Saakashvili made perfectly clear that he expects the dispute with Aslan Abashidze, the pro-Russian leader of Adjaria, site of Russia's Military Base 12, to be decided by Georgia's parliamentary elections, scheduled for March 28.

In Tbilisi in late January, the Democratic Ajaria movement held its founding convention. The movement declared its aim to be 'removing Aslan Abashidze as head of the autonomous republic by constitutional means.' A few days later it merged with Our Ajaria, which shares its goals. Activists of the anti-Abashidze movement, whose predecessor was the ill-famed youth organization, Kmara!, which was supported, according to media reports, by Soros money and which played a basic part in organizing the coup in Georgia, now are organizing meetings and demonstrations in Ajaria against official Batumi. It is noteworthy that the leaders of all these 'democratic elements of Ajaria' are members of one of the ruling parties, the bloc of Burdzhanadze-Democrats.

For the time being, the head of Ajaria has managed to stay in control of the situation. 'My power is not so easily broken,' he has confidently declared. But the most consistent and radical of the Ajarian leader's foes and the author of the slogan, 'Ajaria-Without Abashidze!', David Berdzenishvili, who is chairman of the Republican Party of Georgia, which is allied with Saakashvili's United National Movement, has explicitly declared that Abashidze is incapable of coming to an agreement with Saakashvili. The same March 28 date is given for Abashidze's downfall, when the nationalists expect to see 'the crushing victory of the anti-Abashidze movements in Ajaria.'

The existence of such a plan is attested by a variety of sources. Irakly Megreleshvili, the Tbilisi coordinator of Kmara!, is convinced that Aslan Abashidze will soon be overthrown and, indeed, by forces in Ajaria itself. 'Ajaria is not a problem now. That's all been decided,' the young man firmly declared in a January interview with Caucasus Center. That the organ has an obvious political bias does not mean that it never carries honest or credible communications.

But what will Russia do in view of the attacks continually leveled against Abashidze? It won't interfere, Berdzenishvili is sure. There is a new reality in Georgia today, he says, and Russia understands that. And here is how the recently retired Georgian minister of state security, Valery Khaburzani, sees it. 'The government ought to use force [in Ajaria] to protect the law and Constitution. Nothing else will work,' he declared in an interview with Tbilisi's Georgian Times. 'I know the mood of the current Russian government on certain questions. That the Russian bases will be used is practically excluded.'

This appears to be a realistic assessment. 'The Ajarian contract soldiers of Base 12 are rapidly being replaced by Russians precisely to make it impossible to use the base as part of possible armed resistance,' a well-informed source in the military told Rosbalt. Tbilisi has put forward another interpretation of this: in its view, the rotation is taking place because Georgians won't shoot other Georgians but nothing will stand in the way of Russian soldiers defending 'the Abashidze regime.' Whatever the reality, Batumi is primarily counting on its own forces. 'We can put together a 20,000-man army, primarily made up of people from the mountainous areas of Ajaria, in a couple of hours,' a close colleague of the Ajarian leader told Rosbalt. 'And if the enemies of Aslan Abashidze seriously try to destabilize the situation, we will sweep them away and move on to Tbilisi itself. They are backed by no more than a few thousand people. There simply can be no serious support for the anti-Abashidze movements.'

There is still one more actor in this play, and his role may be the most significant. There are indications that the Americans, who actively assisted in toppling Eduard Shevardnadze, are extremely disturbed by the way the situation in Georgia is developing. To achieve their goal-full elimination of Russia from the region-they need a single, manageable government in Georgia, not a country torn by feuds. This is why Washington supposedly pressured Saakashvili to find some way of agreeing with the Ajarian leader. Abashidze is getting the same kind of pressure from his Russian 'allies.' 'All the promises made to Batumi during the November negotiations in Moscow-about support and help from Russia---are now annulled,' our informed source said. Apparently, because of the unhealthy sympathy for the president of Georgia . . . Saakashvili and Abashidze are trying to show that they are moving toward dialogue (the Ajarian leader is said to be planning to visit Tbilisi, which he hasn't done since 1991), but mutual dislike and their political differences are too serious to predict any quick result.

The Americans are working with Aslan Abashidze and, according to several leaks of information, have directly offered him the fantastic sum of USD 1.2 billion in exchange for his recognizing the Saakashvili regime. 'Up to now he has not agreed-he is waiting for Moscow's decision,' a diplomatic source told Rosbalt. 'And if he does agree, what difference will there be between Abashidze and Saakashvili? None,' the source said. 'This would amount to Ajaria's rejection of its pro-Russian orientation. Of course, it's true that no one would then be guaranteeing that Aslan Abashidze stays in power.' It's quite obvious that anyone who trusts the Americans, especially over some kind of guarantees, after what happened to Milosevic, is committing the height of political foolishness. Or who trusts the more than questionable manageability and 'responsibility' of Saakashvili and his ability to fulfill obligations that he has assumed. . . .

There is information suggesting that similar talks with representatives of Washington have begun in Abkhazia. Ostensibly, they are discussing Abkhazia becoming part of a federal Georgia under the protection of international peace-keepers on the lines of what the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe and the US tried to impose to control things in Pridnestr. For the unrecognized republic, this scenario-given the complete absence of interest on Russia's part of establishing an associative relationship with it (thus, Konstantin Kosachev, chairman of the State Duma Foreign Affairs Committee, said just days ago that the State Duma must not respond to such calls from Abkhazia)-might be a way out of its international isolation and economic stagnation. However, representatives of the Abkhazian leadership consistently and categorically reject the possibility of any change in Abkhazia's status. Nor could Rosbalt get confirmation of the rumors about negotiations with the Americans from the representative office of the unrecognized republic in Moscow. Naturally, however, such talks could hardly proceed except in conditions of strict secrecy.

'What's the difference if Russia loses the last bits of its influence in Georgia,' a Caucasus specialist in Russia's special forces told Rosbalt. This source, too, spoke only on condition that his name not be used. 'Nobody cares about it. If we'd begun working there five or six years ago, there'd be some sense in it. But we've missed the boat, the Americans have entrenched themselves in this extremely important region. . . . It makes perfect sense for the autonomies to enter into negotiations with the Americans-after all, Russia has offered them nothing and, in fact, has thrown them to the wolves.' Let us hope that this is not yet the end, although the influence on the formation of Russian foreign policy by such analysts as Prikhodko makes us fear for the fate of the country and its allies in the near-abroad.

http://www.rosbaltnews.com/2004/03/17/65829.html